Post referendum uncertainty has compounded the impact of successive tax rises on values in London’s prime housing market and will delay the sector’s return to growth, according to international real estate adviser, Savills, which today issued revised five year forecasts.
The firm anticipates that the city’s highest value homes market will continue to adjust throughout 2016. Value fluctuations are then expected to hover around zero for the next two years as Brexit negotiations play out, before returning to capital growth in line with the long term trend in 2019.
The prime central London markets, where values average around £4 million, have been most impacted by changes to stamp duty since December 2014. Prices were -8.1 per cent below their 2014 peak by the time of the referendum, including falls of -2.2 per cent in the first six months of this year.
As a result, Savills believes that further price adjustments in the order of 6 or 7per cent will be required to secure sales as buyers wait to see how Brexit negotiations proceed, and the impact on the UK and London economy becomes clearer, although the currency play is a clear boost to international buyer interest. Prime central London values are therefore now expected to close 2016 down -9.0 per cent and stabilise for the next two years. A return to growth in 2019 is forecast, with total growth of 21 per cent in the five years from 2017 to 2021.
Table showing the latest Savills 5-year forecast
The lower value, more domestic outer prime London markets, where the average house price is £2 million, were less impacted by the December 2014 stamp duty increases and values rose 2.3 per cent in 2015. However, a further 3 per cent surcharge on additional homes combined with pre-referendum uncertainty to suppress growth in the first six months of this year and contributed to reduced fluidity in the market.
Total price falls of -5.0 per cent are forecast for outer prime London in 2016, with lower total five year growth to end of 2021 of 14.6 per cent, reflecting mortgage lending constraints and greater caution around financial sector job security.
“The market will inevitably remain susceptible to fluctuations in buyer sentiment, but there is nothing to suggest the impact of the vote to leave will echo that of the global financial crisis,” says Lucian Cook, Savills UK head of residential research. “The summer market was slow but certainly not moribund, and the currency advantage brought international buyers back into the market.
“We now need further small adjustments to bring buyers back to the table in greater numbers and early signs from the autumn market are that committed sellers have adjusted their prices by between 5 and 10 per cent. The current situation is reminiscent of the 2002 to 2004 post bull run period when a less significant financial shock combined with an uncertain geopolitical backdrop. Prices then fell a total of 10 per cent.
“There will be opportunities across the prime London market for those prepared to take a medium term year view, but it will require sellers to recognise the subtleties of a market that is likely to distinguish between the very best stock in the best locations and the rest.
“Looking further ahead, we know the prime London markets have generally rebounded strongly after a period of adjustment. While the tax backdrop will continue to be factored into buying decisions, no other European city has the infrastructure to match London as world city and global financial centre and this should underpin a return to trend levels of growth.”
