Seasonal cycle suggests house prices won’t drop until summer 2022


Research from the national estate agent, Keller Williams UK, explains why UK house price growth could remain buoyant until at least summer 2022.

House prices have reached phenomenal highs since the start of the pandemic, a shortage of supply and ever-increasing demand means homes are selling for handsome sums and at breakneck speed. It has left many industry experts and commentators asking when prices will start to fall again, having already defied expectations by climbing even after the end of the initial stamp duty holiday.

Keller Williams has analysed how the four seasons impact house prices and market demand over the past 36 months, a project that reveals prices are very unlikely to drop until at least June 2022.

This is because, by splitting the calendar year into seasons, it is clear that the UK housing market follows a predictable cycle.

The average house price in autumn – September, October, November – over the past three years has sat at £240,000. Always a busy time of year, this goes a long way to explain why prices and demand are still so high today.

As the year moves into winter – December, January, February – the average house price climbs even further. Over the past 36 months, the average house price in winter has been £243,998.

Moving into Spring – March, April, May – prices rise again to an average of £245,000.

It is only with the arrival of summer that prices start to decline. Over the past three years, the average house price in the summer season has sat at £237,980, the lowest price for the whole year.

So the data suggests that having already seen a summer of hot house price growth, we should now see property values continue on their upward trend until summer 2022, at the very least.

CEO of Keller Williams UK, Ben Taylor, commented:

“The stamp duty holiday has spurred an incredible run of upward house price growth and despite many predicting a market slump, we’re yet to see any let up.

Season trends suggest this could be the case for the rest of this year and much of next as the market tends to perform at its best during the autumn, winter and spring seasons.

“For buyers, this is difficult news to stomach, especially those who are hoping to move sooner rather than later. But it will no doubt be welcomed by sellers who should continue to secure a very good price when entering the market.”

Table shows seasonal average house prices and transactions from the past 36 months (June 2018 – May 2021)
Season Average transactions Average (median) price
Summer 232,302 £237,980
Autumn 246,694 £240,000
Winter 217,232 £243,998
Spring 160,287 £245,000
Source HMLR – Price Paid

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