If current trends persist, Scotland is set to face a homelessness crisis of alarming proportions by 2040, according to a new report by full-service law firm Shakespeare Martineau.

The study has forecasted a 90% increase in homelessness applications to more than 4,100 annually, while at least 7,000 households could be forced into temporary accommodation – an 89% surge.

The City of Edinburgh is anticipated to have the largest share of households in temporary accommodation in Scotland, comprising two thirds (66%) of the total nationwide. Highland follows, accounting for 32% of all such households in the country.

Grant Docherty, partner and head of Shakespeare Martineau in Scotland, said: “This is a wake-up call. We cannot allow these projections to become a reality.

“Scotland abolished the Right to Buy scheme, which gave council house tenants the opportunity to buy their rented home at a discounted price, in 2016 – leading to a 4% increase in the country’s social-rented homes stock in the six years that followed.

“However, despite this, these figures show that it is crucial the public sector and housing associations work together to provide stable, accessible and affordable accommodation. The government also needs to ensure support services for vulnerable groups are properly funded.

“The cost of doing nothing will be catastrophic – not just for the individuals affected but for society as a whole.”

Utilising the latest National Records of Scotland population projections, Shakespeare Martineau – supported by socio economic experts at Marrons – has built a national and regional picture of Scotland’s housing need in 2040.

Supplementing this is government data on homelessness applications and the number of households living in temporary accommodation, as well as under-occupation statistics.

By 2040, Scotland’s 16+ population is expected to grow by 4% to more than 4.7 million people. Notably, Edinburgh and Lothians emerges as the fastest-growing region – anticipating 15% growth to more than 871,000 – while Highlands and Islands will witness a 3% decline in its total population.

To meet the burgeoning demand, at least 352,500 homes need to be constructed across the country by 2040. Edinburgh and Lothians leads the way in housing need, with demand for more than 111,500 homes. In contrast, South of Scotland demands the least, with a requirement of 16,830 properties.

The first-time buyer demographic is anticipated to grow by 1% to more than 1.3 million, with Edinburgh and Lothian expected to experience the most positive growth at 11%. Highlands and Islands stands out with the most significant decline, projected at 7%.

Nationally, the later living demographic is set to witness a 27% increase, with Edinburgh and Lothians experiencing the greatest surge (39%) and Scotland South demonstrating the slowest growth (19%).

Meanwhile, the student-age demographic is set to make up 7% of the total 16+ population in Scotland’s university cities.

Dan Usher, economics director at Marrons, who specialises in housing need evidence, said: “Citing pressure on homelessness services, rising property prices and high levels of temporary accommodation, the Scottish government and 12 of the country’s 32 councils have declared housing emergencies – signalling that intervention is needed.

“In examining the data, it becomes evident there is a pressing need for strategic collaboration between the public and private sectors to address the growing demand for affordable housing, as well as a real opportunity for purpose-built homes tailored for last-time buyers. By capitalising on this, we not only cater to the specific needs of this demographic but also unlock the potential to release much-needed family homes back into the market.

“Building a range of homes to suit many different needs is not only a priority but a necessity. It creates more choice, aids first-time buyers onto the property ladder, gives expanding families additional space; helps the ageing population downsize and live in homes more suitable for their needs, and adds to the supply of affordable housing.”

To read the full report, please visit https://tinyurl.com/ScotlandHousing2040.

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