The closure of a number of coal-fired power stations this year could mean the coming winter is the “tightest we’ve ever seen”, according an academic from University College London.
Professor of international energy and climate change policy Michael Grubb said supply margins had been getting tighter in recent years, falling to just a couple of per cent. Speaking at an event held by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit in London this week, he added: “I think there is a fair case that the coming winter will be the tightest we’ve ever seen”.
However, he said blackouts are unlikely, as new technologies such as demand side response have enabled the grid to become more flexible and cope with much smaller margins than in the past. “Pretty much every year for the last five years we’ve seen autumn headlines saying the lights are going to out and they haven’t even flickered,” he said.
Grubb added that energy efficiency had driven down demand, but warned: “The efficiency programmes are much weaker than they were three years ago so it’s uncertain whether demand keeps going down.”
Speaking at the same event, former Npower chief executive Paul Massara said the capacity crunch would last beyond this year: “I don’t believe it’s just this winter. I think it’ll be three or four winters going on.” He said there was very little new capacity set to come online and he didn’t believe the capacity market was an effective mechanism to fill the remaining gap.
Scottish Power’s 2.4GW Longannet plant and SSE’s 2GW Ferrybridge plant were both shut down last month. The 2GW Eggborough plant owned by Czech firm EPH has a contract to provide a limited amount of backup capacity for the coming winter as part of the supplemental balancing reserve, but is no longer an active participant in the energy market. In February Engie announced plans to close its 1GW Rugeley plant over the summer.
SSE was set to shut down three of the four units at its 2GW Fiddler’s Ferry plant this spring but changed course after the plant was awarded a contract to provide ancillary services to National Grid over the next year.
Click here to read Utility Week’s analysis of the future for coal generation in Britain.
