The report found that a ‘soft’ Brexit could see the industry lose out on 136,000 workers – around 78,000 fewer than in the hard Brexit scenario.
According to the research, which was conducted for Arcadis by the Centre for Economics and Business Research, British construction could lose a volume of workers equivalent to the entire population of Luton (214,700 according to ONS 2015 estimates) in the event of a hard Brexit.
This is based on a potential scenario whereby there would be an extension of the points-based system currently in place for non-EU migrants.
If those EU nationals leaving the industry could not be replaced at the same rate by new EU workers, the research estimated there would be almost 215,000 fewer people from the EU would enter the infrastructure and housebuilding sectors between now and 2020, based on an assumed combined workforce of 1.5m.
Arcadis said that, were policies implemented on a sector-by-sector basis and allowing for a degree of EU migration into the sector, it expected around 135,000 fewer European nationals would relocate to British construction – a number equivalent to the population of Ipswich.
