Developers expected to fund new school places across all nine English regions despite pupil numbers falling by 722,000 by 2030
Councils in England should assess demand for school places across local school networks rather than considering each housing development in isolation, according to new analysis by national planning and development consultancy Lichfields.
Department for Education forecasts show that nursery and primary pupil numbers are expected to fall by 473,000 by 2030, alongside a reduction of 249,000 secondary pupils.
The analysis found that places funded through Housing Developer Contributions are forecast to increase across all nine English regions over the same period. In the North East, for example, pupil numbers are projected to fall by 2.9% while developer-funded places rise by 300%.
It recommends that councils consider existing capacity, access to schools and longer-term population changes before deciding whether new provision is required. This should take account of children who move locally but remain at their current school, as they would not create demand for an additional place.
Mainstream schools could also introduce SEND units where appropriate, while developer contributions could fund improved walking and cycling routes, crossings or bus services. New schools would still be needed where local provision could not accommodate the number of pupils expected.
The findings come as councils plan for further housing growth under the government’s target to deliver 1.5m homes by 2029. Large developments are often planned on the edges of towns and villages, where nearby schools might have spare capacity but are too far away or cannot be reached safely on foot.
Councils estimate the number of school-age children a development is expected to generate. Where existing schools cannot accommodate them or are not accessible, developers can be required to contribute towards new provision.
Assessing demand across the wider area would help councils provide schools for new communities while making better use of places already available. Housing growth could also support established schools in areas where pupil numbers are falling.
Robert Curtis-Haigh, Planner at Lichfields and co-author of the analysis, said: “Our analysis highlights a growing contradiction when planning for housing and education.
“The current system places significant emphasis on the pupil yield of individual developments, meaning new school places are often still being planned even as pupil numbers decline and existing schools face falling rolls.
“The solution isn’t to stop building new schools or new homes, but to take a more strategic view of how the education system will function over the coming decades.
“New schools will still be essential in some locations, particularly where major growth is planned. However, in many cases there may be opportunities to improve accessibility and make better use of existing school capacity, while also recognising that housing growth actually supports those schools that are facing declining pupil numbers.”
Read the full analysis here: https://lichfields.uk/blog/2026/august/24/catchment-22-the-education-planning-paradox-nobody-is-talking-about
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