Recent government reports have pinpointed the procurement sector as a key driver to support the construction industry and solve the challenges faced by the public sector. GERARD TOPLASS, executive chairman of framework provider Pagabo, discusses the need for creating a new quality benchmark – or ‘gold standard’ for frameworks –
GLP, a leading investor and developer of logistics warehouses and distribution parks, announced today that it has completed the development of over 1.25 million SQ FT of modern logistics space at Magna Park South, Lutterworth. The new development includes three units of 746,000 SQ FT, 126,000 SQ FT and 300,000
A pivotal residential development featuring 250 properties with photovoltaic (PV) solar panels, has completed in Nelson and Colne, Lancashire. Delivered by social housing provider Together Housing Association, with supply chain partners Avonside Group and structural engineers Howard Ward Associates (HWA), the scheme is the result of a pioneering three-year project,
Leading managing agent, Rendall & Rittner has appointed Sarah Williams as Area Director to oversee property management across one of their London divisions. An experienced residential property management professional, Sarah has specialised in the block management sector for over 16 years. She joins the company from Warwick Estates where she
Construction can be a reliable and lucrative way to make an income, but not all people working in the industry are at the same pay grade. If you want to start making the kind of income you think you deserve, then you should work to make sure that you deserve
The process of staging your home to ensure a sale involves a lot of different practices. First and foremost, you need to thoroughly declutter any and all space you’re showing to make things nice and tidy. You’ll also need to do a thorough cleaning, manage small repairs, and invest in more significant
Are you considering buying a snow blower this winter or do you already own one? Like a car or a motorcycle, snow blowers have mechanical parts inside that need to be taken care of regularly. Keeping up with regular maintenance tasks for your snow blower is crucial to ensure your
A key milestone has today been reached with construction works beginning at SEGRO Logistics Park Northampton Gateway. Since Summer 2020, SEGRO has been conducting enabling works, which include ecology, archaeology and ground investigations to prepare the site – which is strategically located next to junction 15 on the M1 motorway
Work is set to start on a £11.5 million affordable housing development in Sheffield in the new year. The 93 homes, which are being built off Ferrars Road in Tinsley, will be available for affordable rent via Together Housing Group and have been brought forward by Caddick Group. The development, which will comprise 19 two-bedroom houses, 70 three-bedroom houses and four
Healix Risk Oracle report for 2021 identifies six key risks beyond the pandemic International risk management and assistance expert, Healix International, has identified six key areas of risk – besides the continued impact of COVID-19 – for global organisations in its 2021 Risk Oracle report. Natural Disasters – The
Recent government reports have pinpointed the procurement sector as a key driver to support the construction industry and solve the challenges faced by the public sector. GERARD TOPLASS, executive chairman of framework provider Pagabo, discusses the need for creating a new quality benchmark – or ‘gold standard’ for frameworks – to ensure that the public sector and communities around the UK benefit from the best procurement processes possible. “What is evident from recent government legislation, including the National Infrastructure Strategy and The Construction Playbook, is the need to support public sector partners in their bid to create the very best buildings. From schools and hospitals to prisons and major infrastructure, the government has shown that it is committed to delivering ‘better, faster, greener’ solutions to support our recovery from COVID-19 and build the economy of the future – and is asking the construction sector to be very much part of that. “The focus on procuring for value is a big step in the right direction. The government is trying to get purchasers to understand the whole life cost of schemes, rather than just the upfront costs, which is a drum that many people in the industry have been banging for some time now. “This means there is a big education piece with purchasers on what ‘best value’ and ‘whole life value’ actually is – it is not just about monetary cost, and we need to work with public sector organisations to define this. “Central to this will be framework providers. They are an efficient method for government to procure public works – but many clients across the public sector also use frameworks in order to get the best possible outcomes. This is where the creation of a ‘gold standard’ for frameworks would be at the benefit of everyone working in procurement across the industry. It would enable authorities to get the best from procurement processes and achieve the best outcomes in terms of social value. And indeed, this is something that is detailed in The Construction Playbook. “Pushing for this ‘gold standard’ is something that we welcome for procurement, particularly as it’s clear that the government expects that use of frameworks is going to grow and recommends their use. This will lead to more frameworks and even potentially more framework providers, so having an industry standard for this practice will be really important in enabling such public sector bodies – and the communities they serve – to reap the benefits. “For example, some frameworks are much more expensive to procure works through than others, and so transparency of these costs will be important so that authorities aren’t caught out by hidden extras. In the same ways that the public sector needs to consider the suitability of a consultant or contractor, it must choose a framework provider equally as carefully. This means that framework providers must provide simple, affordable and accessible solutions, but more than this they must be transparent about costs and compliance. “We would urge the government to consider setting out a kitemark approach so that public sector procurement professionals can feel assured that they are working with the right framework provider – and ultimately that they can rely on the organisation they are procuring works through. “However, with a radical change in the procurement process within the public sector, as well as the sector itself undergoing changes, there will be a need for providing excellent consultancy and training to public sector workers. This has to happen so that both the wider construction sector and procurement can effectively work together, and work at the same pace. “A big challenge is also going to be how procurement professionals will be trained on what is needed. The use of technology is going to be really important with this to help us remove red tape and bureaucracy for the public sector’s benefit. Digital technology and digitally enabled procurement and delivery could be enormously helpful in ensuring that the rest of the principles are achieved in practice. “A prime example of this is modern methods of construction (MMC), and the way they are being used more widely. Our view at Pagabo is that MMC is not a separate function, but rather a function of construction overall – and where it can be used, it should be used. We want public sector organisations to be able to look at a scheme that’s being procured and be able to not only procure the expertise but also the best delivery methods – which will only drive better social return – on a scheme-by-scheme basis. “This is an area that Pagabo is currently working to improve within the sector. We are currently working with Social Profit Calculator on the creation of a ‘Smart Construction Calculator’. This software aims to use historical data on MMC projects to build a baseline measurement for social value – this software will allow a client to look at the social impact of a scheme built with traditional methods and compare this to the use of MMC for the same scheme. “But most importantly in the sector, we need to work towards talent density within procurement, properly set up frameworks that have good coverage of suppliers, lots and geographies, and the use of digital technology – all wrapped up in compliant practice with social value at its heart. “Ultimately, if stakeholders adopt what has been outlined in recent government reports and play by those rules, then it will get the traction it needs within the industry. Mavericks will adopt the practices outlined early on, and there may be some criticism to the changes, but then will come widespread adoption. But it all starts with ensuring these rules are widely understood everyone in the industry from public sector bodies, to procurement professionals and the wider construction sector.” For more information, please visit https://www.pagabo.co.uk/
GLP, a leading investor and developer of logistics warehouses and distribution parks, announced today that it has completed the development of over 1.25 million SQ FT of modern logistics space at Magna Park South, Lutterworth. The new development includes three units of 746,000 SQ FT, 126,000 SQ FT and 300,000 SQ FT which are all available for immediate occupancy. Unit 4 which comprises a 99,000 SQ FT has been leased prior to completion on a ten-year term and will be operational for the customer in January 2021. In line with GLP’s sustainability ambitions, the development includes a range of features such as environmental analytics, resulting in 15% less operational carbon emissions and 12% less embodied carbon. The unit is also 100% PV-ready and designed to WELLprinciples. Magna Park Lutterworth is the UK’s first and Europe’s largest dedicated logistics and distribution park. The development of this unit was part of its ongoing expansion from 9 million SQ FT of floor space to nearly 16 million SQ FT in the coming years. GLP is also developing a series of new amenities, including wellness and recreation facilities as well as the new Logistics Institute of Technology (LIT). Magna Park Lutterworth benefits from excellent transport links to the rest of the UK, with 59.3 million people, or 85% of the UK population, within a four-hour drive of the development as a result of its easy access to the M1, M6 and M69 motorways. Olivia Hinds, Development Surveyor, GLP, said: “The recent expansion of Magna Park South and leasing of the first unit solidifies its position as the leading dedicated logistics and distribution park in Europe. We are pleased to have leased Unit 4 prior to its completion date and look forward to working with the new customer as it becomes operational at the unit next year. “We now have a total of 1.17 million SQ FT of logistics space available to lease at Magna Park South, Lutterworth, spread over 3 units. We are confident that this will be in high demand as ecommerce growth in our sector continues to fuel interest for warehouse space across the UK in a supply constrained market.”
A pivotal residential development featuring 250 properties with photovoltaic (PV) solar panels, has completed in Nelson and Colne, Lancashire. Delivered by social housing provider Together Housing Association, with supply chain partners Avonside Group and structural engineers Howard Ward Associates (HWA), the scheme is the result of a pioneering three-year project, partly funded by European Regional Development Fund (ERDF), to help revolutionise the sector’s usage of renewable energy. The £2million project sees 170 of Together Housing’s homes in Colne and 80 properties in Nelson fitted with solar panels, as well as on-site battery storage units which fill with solar energy during the day, storing power for use whenever it is needed. There is also scope for any excess energy generated by the systems to be sold back to energy suppliers, effectively creating a small-scale energy provider. The solar panels were delivered by Avonside Renewables, a division of national building envelope contractor Avonside Group. Avonside Group appointed Nottingham-based HWA in 2019, to provide structural surveys and assess the different types of properties; determining which were suitable and had the capacity for solar panels and battery systems. As well as work on-site, HWA produced desktop studies which provided the groundwork for moving the project on to completion. The project marks a significant step towards converting England’s homes to renewable energy sources, and to the UK’s target of becoming a net zero country by 2050. At the time that the works were carried, it was the largest deployment of solar and battery storage in the UK, for any social housing provider. Residents of the properties have reported substantial cost savings during the first few months since the solar panels and battery storage units were installed, and can expect to save as much as £300 per year on their energy bills. Once the success of this landmark project has been assessed, there is the potential to roll it out to 20,000 of Together Housing’s 37,000+ homes across the country, providing a huge reduction in its carbon footprint. Giles Ward, director at HWA, said: “This was an important, energy-efficient project which the team and I are really pleased to have been a part of. We have worked on numerous PV schemes since the sector was in its infancy and it is one of our specialisms as a firm. “As one of the largest projects of its kind in social housing, we were proud to impart our expertise to help determine the feasibility of the properties. “It was a pleasure to work with Avonside Group, which has worked with many businesses and organisations in multi sectors, to reduce carbon emissions.” Etienne Hilaire, branch manager at Avonside Group, said: “Solar and storage systems offer social housing providers the opportunity to open up many cost-saving and energy-reducing benefits to both their tenants and their business. “This was a substantial project for Together Housing and it’s fantastic what has been delivered. We have already seen the positive impact this is having, with tenants in Colne and Nelson reporting a reduction in their energy bills, thus helping to combat fuel poverty. “The potential to roll this project out to similar housing schemes around the UK could have an incredible impact on our energy consumption on a national scale.”
Leading managing agent, Rendall & Rittner has appointed Sarah Williams as Area Director to oversee property management across one of their London divisions. An experienced residential property management professional, Sarah has specialised in the block management sector for over 16 years. She joins the company from Warwick Estates where she was an Associate Director responsible for five regional offices. Prior to that she worked for RMG, where she worked her way up gaining experience across the business. Sarah’s focus at Rendall & Rittner will be running the teams that look after a number of the company’s property clients, ensuring the highest levels of service delivery. Rendall & Rittner’s portfolio of almost 80,000 units nationwide includes some of London’s most prestigious new developments and Sarah’s Central London division spans the full range of development types from large mixed-use schemes and high-rise towers to traditional mansion blocks. Commenting on her new role Sarah says: “Rendall & Rittner has an outstanding reputation and an excellent mix of clients, so I am delighted to join the team. Good customer service is at the heart of Rendall & Rittner’s promise to their clients and it is something I am passionate about. I’m looking forward to working with the property managers and on-site teams to look after the interests and safety of residents.” Richard Daver, Managing Director of Rendall & Rittner comments: “We are very pleased to welcome Sarah to Rendall & Rittner. Her depth of experience in the property management industry will be a huge asset and her appointment is part of our strategy of strengthening the business by employing the very best people as we continue to grow.” For more information on Rendall & Rittner please visit www.rendallandrittner.co.uk.
Construction can be a reliable and lucrative way to make an income, but not all people working in the industry are at the same pay grade. If you want to start making the kind of income you think you deserve, then you should work to make sure that you deserve it. Here are a few ways to increase your income as a construction worker. Choose a lucrative specialization As mentioned, not all construction workers are making the same money. Specializing in a specific kind of construction work takes a lot of time, effort, and specific education, but can often unlock the most lucrative career paths in the industry. Look here to find out more about some of the best-paying construction jobs that are currently available, such as working in inspection, elevator installation, getting an electrician license, and more. Consider your career path and how easy it might be or how long it might take to transition into one of these careers. Broaden your skill base You don’t necessarily need to become a specialist in order to engage in a more lucrative construction career, however. In fact, by becoming something of a jack of all trades, you can be a very valuable member on any construction site. If you click here, you can see a range of high-risk work licenses and qualifications that could be of major use on any site. By having a broad range of skills and qualifications, you’re more likely to be selected for more jobs, since you’re effectively turning yourself into a tool that can suit a wide range of purposes. Work with people who can give you a foot up Construction is very much an industry that works on who you know, just as much as what you know. By doing jobs and working well with contractors and managers who are consistently making good bids and getting the better jobs out there, you can secure your part as a reliable member of their team. If you’re new to the industry, you can look for those who work to nurture construction talent to help you get the experience and reputation you need to earn more as you work more. Transition into the management side of things Working in a construction site can be lucrative in and of itself, but if you start learning more about the project management and administrative side, you can transition to a career that sees you overseeing the jobs instead of working on them. This typically does require that you get some education alongside your career experience, but it is a transition that can see your salary growing considerably. Furthermore, as you get older, working on-site might lead to a greater risk of accident and injury, so making the transition eventually should be a goal for most in the industry. There is no guarantee that, even in following the tips, you will make the greater income that you desire. You have to also show the quality and consistency of work that leads to trust from clients and co-workers, which unlocks the path to further work.
The process of staging your home to ensure a sale involves a lot of different practices. First and foremost, you need to thoroughly declutter any and all space you’re showing to make things nice and tidy. You’ll also need to do a thorough cleaning, manage small repairs, and invest in more significant improvements if possible. Amidst all of these efforts though, you should also keep your furniture in mind. It can almost be easy to neglect furniture, because the general assumption is that prospective buyers are considering investing in the home — not what’s in it. Unfortunately though, taking furnishing and décor out of the picture when assessing a property is easier said than done. Even if people viewing your home are well aware that they aren’t buying the furniture as well, how it looks and how it’s arranged will impact their impressions of the property. Given this, we’re presenting a few furniture-related staging tips to keep in mind. Get Rid of Old or Damaged Furniture The first and most important tip is to get rid of old or damaged furniture. This may seem like an obvious tip for those who are used to staging successfully, or those who are inclined to take a thorough and careful approach. But again, many make the mistake of assuming prospective buyers will look past furnishings, and thus ignore any disrepair in this area. The truth is that furniture in bad condition is considered to be one of the main reasons home staging can stall a sale. Simply put, furniture that appears old, worn, broken, or even outdated can change the entire complexion of a space. It can turn an otherwise beautiful, inviting, and well-staged home into a less appealing space, and in doing so prevent a sale. This can even happen on a subconscious level, such that someone viewing the home doesn’t necessarily nit-pick about furniture, but still comes away with a worse impression than he or she might have had the furniture been in better shape. Find Sale Pieces Aside from the misguided assumption that home viewers will simply look past old or unimpressive furnishings, another thing that holds some homeowners back in this area is the simple fact that new furniture can be expensive. Staging a home can actually be a costly process given that it often involves a few repairs or remodelling projects, and budgeting in new furniture simply to make a good impression isn’t always a priority. For this reason we suggest that anyone considering staging and/or selling a home in the near future should begin keeping an eye out for some of the sales occasionally run by respectable brands in this category. For reference, an up-to-date overview of retail sales recently pointed out that customers can sometimes get as much as 50% off items from brands like Silentnight, Hudson Living, and others in the furniture space. Sales of that nature, as well as the occasional discount at a major online retailer, can give you plenty of options, such that you may well be able to affordable re-furnish a home for staging. You may just set yourself up with some excellent pieces to stock your own new home with as well! Look Into Rentals If the idea of buying new furniture specifically for this purpose seems a bit much, or exceeds your budget, furniture rental for home staging is also an option. In this case, you simply need to find a local company that will rent out pieces (or which at least has a lenient return policy) and figure out what you need in order to temporarily replace old furniture, or make a few key rooms stand out. Where rentals are concerned, the issue is sometimes the effort required. Ultimately it’s a fairly big job to find the right store, choose the right pieces, and organise them in your home, all on a temporary basis. And it still costs money as well! For these reasons alone, some prefer to simply purchase new pieces. That said, renting is sometimes more affordable in the long run, and can thus be worth considering. For that matter, you can also try a mix of buying and renting — perhaps purchasing furniture you’re confident you can use wherever you may be moving, and renting the rest of what you need. These are simple tips, but vital ones if your home staging effort is to be effective. The state of your furniture is every bit as important as presenting a tidy space or emphasising desirable features. It is thus necessary to ensure that old pieces or those in disrepair are replaced by newer and more attractive alternatives.
Are you considering buying a snow blower this winter or do you already own one? Like a car or a motorcycle, snow blowers have mechanical parts inside that need to be taken care of regularly. Keeping up with regular maintenance tasks for your snow blower is crucial to ensure your equipment is ready to be put to work when the snow begins to fall, every time. Here are some basic maintenance tasks to keep your equipment running smoothly. After 5 hours of snow blower use Before doing anything, disengage all control levers and stop the engine of your snow blower before cleaning, repairing or inspecting it. If your snow blower is new, you will need to replace the engine oil after the first five hours of use. This will ensure your machine works properly in the future, as it will clean out any residue that was left during assembly. After the initial break-in period, make sure you check the oil level after each use. Also, don’t forget to inspect and clean up the exhaust area and air filter (if your machine has one). After 25 hours of snow blower use Once you have used your machine for a longer period of time, it’s time to check the spark plug for any signs of damage like deposit or cracks. If your spark plug has some damage, it’s best to replace it with a new one. What’s more, spark plugs are usually quite affordable, so it’s not a bad idea to have a couple backups on hand ahead of time. In addition, it is recommended that you lubricate the auger shaft at least once a season and again before storing it for summer to prevent rust. After every season To keep your snow blower running smoothly season after season, you will need to change the old engine oil in your machine. This should be done every season and after every 50 hours of use. This will ensure that your snow blower keeps operating properly and without risk of poor performance or expensive repair bills. Also, inspect the belts for any signs of fraying or splitting. Some machines like Cub Cadet’s three-stage snow blowers have more than one belt—make sure you install new ones that are compatible with your snow blower brand and model. Finally, it is advisable to replace the spark plug even if there are no signs of damage after every 100 hours of use. Other things to keep an eye on The basic maintenance tasks mentioned above are crucial to ensure that your machine works well. However, there are other items that can wear out, such as the scraper bar or skid shoes, that you should look for when servicing your machine. Be sure to check the machine thoroughly for other signs of developing problems from time to time for any signs of damage and replace or repair as needed. Don’t forget to refer to your operator’s manual for specific guidance about how to best service your snow blower. That’s it! Following these simple maintenance tasks should be enough to ensure that your snow blower performs at its best over the course of its lifetime.
A key milestone has today been reached with construction works beginning at SEGRO Logistics Park Northampton Gateway. Since Summer 2020, SEGRO has been conducting enabling works, which include ecology, archaeology and ground investigations to prepare the site – which is strategically located next to junction 15 on the M1 motorway – ahead of construction. Once developed, the 450 acre site will become a multi-modal logistics hub in the UK Midlands, with five million square feet of modern, highly sustainable warehousing and logistics facilities, including a dedicated 35 acre Strategic Rail Freight Interchange that will have the capacity for up to 16 trains a day. SEGRO is investing £190 million into infrastructures works, including new rail connections and significant improvements to the strategic road network, incorporating major upgrades to Junctions 15 and 15a on the M1, a new bridge over the West Coast Mainline, and building a bypass around Roade, and safer junctions along the A508. This work will be delivered in partnership with Highways England, Network Rail and local authorities. In addition to delivering road and rail improvements for the region, the scheme will create around 7500 direct jobs, with around 120 created during the infrastructure construction phase. Working alongside the local council and community partners, SEGRO is set to deliver an employment skills programme that will provide training for members of the community, enabling them to become active members of the workforces created by the scheme. The scheme will incorporate over 80 acres of parkland and amenity grassland, with 18km of foot paths, 20km of hedgerows and the planting of 60,000 new trees. The first plots are expected to be available for buildings in late 2021, with the completion of the infrastructure works anticipated by the end of 2023. Andrew Pilsworth, SEGRO’s Managing Director, National Logistics, said: “The start of construction at SEGRO Logistics Park Northampton Gateway is an exciting and positive milestone. “Now more than ever are we witnessing the vital role logistics is playing in supporting the UK economy and it’s clear that businesses are relying on well located, sustainable facilities from which they can meet their customers’ demands. “SEGRO Park Northampton Gateway is excellently located with easy access to key road networks and with the new rail links and Strategic Rail Freight Interchange, will present great opportunities for businesses to flourish.”
Work is set to start on a £11.5 million affordable housing development in Sheffield in the new year. The 93 homes, which are being built off Ferrars Road in Tinsley, will be available for affordable rent via Together Housing Group and have been brought forward by Caddick Group. The development, which will comprise 19 two-bedroom houses, 70 three-bedroom houses and four four-bedroom houses, is possible thanks to funding from Homes England. Together Housing was announced as one of the government housing agency’s strategic partners in January 2019, receiving £53 million to help deliver 1,152 additional affordable home starts by March 2022. According to Zoopla, the average price for property in Sheffield stood at £211,334 in November 2020. This is a rise of 5.17% compared to 12 months ago. Kevin Ruth, Deputy Chief Executive for Together Housing said: “Rising house prices are forcing many young individuals, couples and families out of the area they grew up in and away from their support networks. “The provision of affordable houses for rent in the city will enable those priced out of the housing market, including key workers and low-income families, to put roots down in the city.” Johnny Caddick of Caddick Group said: “We’ve been involved in this project from the outset, and working with Together Housing to realise such an important scheme, which is set to help so many individuals and families to find their new homes at affordable prices, has been a very positive experience. “Working closely with Together Housing from the start, demonstrates the breadth of what we offer as a Group as well as the collaboration and understanding required to make these types of projects successful.” The scheme, which will also include landscaped open space with ponds and public art, is set to be completed by early 2023, with the first homes being ready to welcome new residents in early 2022.
Healix Risk Oracle report for 2021 identifies six key risks beyond the pandemic International risk management and assistance expert, Healix International, has identified six key areas of risk – besides the continued impact of COVID-19 – for global organisations in its 2021 Risk Oracle report. Natural Disasters – The increasing frequency of extreme weather events with natural disasters becoming more pronounced both in terms of frequency and severity. Building resilience to natural disasters is a significant exercise. Faceless Threats – In a context of increased isolationism, and more time spent online, individuals will become increasingly disconnected from normative community activity with a comparative increase in crime and incidents of violence perpetrated by ‘faceless’ lone actors. Supply Chain Disruption – The highly complex logistical webs that make up the global economy have predominantly been designed with cost and efficiency in mind. Unless resilience starts to be factored into these considerations, disruption to supply chains will remain a significant operational risk factor. Cyber Attacks – No longer just an inconvenience, they are potentially calamitous. More worrisome, attacks targeting government infrastructure are on the rise, and any cyber breaches in this space could have unprecedented implications. Decay of the ‘social contract’ – Mounting frustrations over inequality, cynicism of perceived corrupt political elites, and distrust of wider civil society including the media and big business amid the pandemic of ‘Fake News’ are likely to lead to increased public agitation and worsening levels of political cohesion. Erosion of domestic political cohesion fuelled by social media – Complex political issues find themselves being misrepresented in the form of a ‘post’, ‘share’, or ‘tweet’. This dynamic will become more prevalent in 2021 and result in even more social and political divisiveness, with rising levels of political risk in locations where the ‘culture war’ is most pronounced. As Chris Job MBE, Director, Risk Management Services, Healix International explains, it is vital for organisations with an international footprint to ensure that the myriad of risks beyond the coronavirus remain a focus. “2021 is likely to be as busy a year for challenging global events, some predictable and some unprecedented. Overlay this expectation with a new and as yet undefined normal and a global drive for economic growth, the need for robust organisational resilience plans is clear. The key now is to ensure consistent and reliable monitoring is combined with access to the most appropriate resources to ensure employee wellbeing remains the priority. “With our deep-rooted, in-house medical and security expertise underpinned by modern technology, Healix offers a single-source comprehensive, compelling and powerful risk solution for 2021 and beyond.” The 2021 Healix International Risk Oracle Report, along with a global Security Risk Map, can be downloaded from https://info.healix.com/download-risk-forecasts-2021